Golf analyst Patrick McDonald & Sportline Data Analyst Sia Nejad join CBS Sports HQ to preview the 3M Open on the PGA Tour.
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We’re just a few days removed from a Scotty Sheffller master class as we continue to push towards the playoffs with the penultimate event in the FedEx Cup regular season upon us at the 3M Open in Minnesota this weekend. The past four winners all in the field this weekend by the way, including Jonathan Vegas, who picked up his fourth tour win at this event last year. All of these guys pushing for a spot inside the top 70. That is the cut line for the BMW playoffs coming up later this year. [Music] Let’s get you set for the action as we welcome in CBS Sports golf analyst Patrick McDonald going to set the stage for us at the 3M. It’s all teeing off at TPC Twin Cities. Patrick, it’s a course that was designed by Arnold Palmer back in 2000. We saw Royal Port Rush give the fellas some fits over the weekend in Northern Ireland. What does TPC Twin Cities have in store for the field? A little bit different than Royal Port Rush, I would say. But TPC Twin Cities, it’s a fun course, right? one of the newer venues on the PJ tour, has been on the tour for less than a decade now. And although it’s in Minnesota, it almost kind of plays like a Florida course with how much water there is out there. There’s 14 water hazards. Guys are going to have to maneuver around those to kind of get into the hole. It’s a par 71, one of the longer ones on the PJ tour as well. So, I think you’re going to see a lot of variance this week. You’re going to see a lot of low scores and you’re going to see a lot of high scores. So, which is great for the viewer. A lot of action, a lot of fireworks. And you look at some of these past winners. You have a Tony Fenale, you have a Jonathan Vegas, you have a Cameron Champ, Matthew Wolf when it was the first uh the first edition of this tournament. A lot of really good drivers of the golf ball. And a lot of guys who kind of struggle on the greens every now and again. These complexes at TPC Twin Cities pretty simple to read, pretty flat as well. And so when you’re looking at guys who might play well this week, it all stems from the big stick and that driver, both long and accurate, is required out there at TPC Twin Cities. Well, we know we won’t see Scotty Sheffield in the field after this weekend, but you will find a guy that was like very close to him on the leaderboard over the weekend. Chris Goddarup has just been the guy to pay attention to over the last couple of weekends, it feels like. Um, he carted a four round 12 under to finish third at the Open Championship. A and as of late, Patrick, we’ve seen him rise all the way up to number 27 in the world right now. Is he peing at the right time? You got to imagine, right? I mean, this guy went over to Europe outside the top 150 in the OWGR. And as you see, he’s all the way to number 27 now. I mean, talk about a great European summer vacation. It doesn’t get much better than that. He held out Rory Mroy at the Scottish Open for his second PGA Tour win. You look at the statistics, he is uh 12th in terms of total strokes gained the last three months in the world, not even in this field. He ranked second in the field behind only Sam Burns in that regard. And I I look at his statistics and you see the iron play get a little bit better. You see the short game get a little bit better. And to me it screams a guy who’s trying who has finally figured out how to play golf on the PGA Tour, right? He’s a guy who won on the Cornferry Tour. The Cornferry Tour is a little bit different where you have to pin your ears back. You got to get to 30 under just about every single week to have a chance. And he’s slowly but surely started to clean up some mistakes, right? He’s not chasing the sucker pins. He’s playing a bit more conserv uh conservatively when you have to. He’s picking his spots much better. And he’s gone from a guy who entering the Scottish Open was on the cusp of needing to go to the FedEx Cup fall and fight for his full-time status to a guy potentially fighting for that US RDER Cup team. He’s been so much fun to watch over the last couple of weeks. Shout out to Rick Ga and you guys for putting Chris Gddup on our radar here because man, he’s been a lot of fun. We’ll see what he can do this weekend. Maybe not the same touch uh that Sam Burns had this weekend. Obviously, we know Royal Port Rush was not very nice to Sam Burns, but he’s still hoping to push for a Ryder Cup spot. When you think about where he is right now in the standings, I believe he’s 75th, and you got to be uh 70 to make the cut here. What What’s important for Sam Burns this weekend, Patrick? Uh it’s an interesting spot for Burns because really ever since the Masters, he’s started performing a lot better. He had a brutal first three months of the season and then we’ve seen the iron play come alive for him. It led to that runnerup finish there to Ryan Fox at the RBC Canadian Open. He’s climbed all the way up to number 15 in the RDER Cup standings. We talked about God up there, number 22 in the standings. You have another young American in Maverick McNeely who’s inside the top 12 at number 11. Windham Clark in the field this week too at number 16. So, four Americans kind of jostling for position trying to make a move to impress Keegan Bradley. And I’m interested in Burns because you look at his partner across the President’s Cup where he was the best player for that US team at Royal Montreal and in Rome last time the Rder Cup was held. His partner was Scotty Sheffller and Scotty Sheffller might have found a new partner in Russell Henley. They were great together at Royal Montreal. Their games really complement each other. And so I’m trying to figure out where Sam Burns would really fit on this team, which player he would complement, which skill sets that they require. He’s obviously one of the, if not the best putter in the world, but he’s got to make a push because Keegan Bradley, he’s a guy who kind of got on the outside looking in with his own playing uh playing uh residency. When you think about Rome, he was inside that top 12, didn’t get picked. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bradley just goes 1 through 12. And so Burns needs to make a move starting this week. All right, so Burns trying to push to make the Rder Cup spot. Adam Scott is the one who needs to make the top 70 as he’s trying to push to make the playoffs. Uh he sits at 85 right now in the in the world standings. Patrick, he missed the cut over the weekend and I mentioned it. Top 70 uh make the playoffs. So when you look at a guy like um excuse me, if you look at a guy like Adam Scott here, what’s your gauge as he hopes to make a playoff push starting this weekend? You know, he just has not played a lot of golf this year. Adam Scott teed it up 26 times in 2024 between the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour. And this week will be start number 16 for him. And you think about the signature event schedule and how it was kind of affected players playing uh calendar and Scott has played only the Visbar Championship and the Scottish Open which a lot of guys would play no matter what. And outside of that it’s been major championships and signature events which a lot of guys have gotten comfortable playing. You think about Patrick Canley, he’s pretty similar. Victor Hoblin pretty similar in that boat as well. And so because of that Scott finds himself with only eight rounds left in the PGA Tour season on the outside looking in. And I think a couple good things are he’s exempt through 2026, so he’s not really fighting for his full-time status. And his game does fit these last two tournaments. He’s played well at the Windom Championship before. He lost in a playoff a few years back to Kevin Kizner. And he’s driving the ball great, which like I mentioned, you need around TPC Twin Cities, so he just needs to get that broomstick going. I think TPC Twin Cities is a great venue for that. But he just hasn’t played a ton of golf. And because of that, he’s on the outside looking in right now. outside looking in, but a chance to get on the inside coming up this weekend. Patrick McDonald joining us here for a look ahead to the 3M Open out in Minnesota. Patrick, we appreciate the time. Don’t forget the 3M Open coming your way on CBS this weekend. Our coverage set to take over at 3:00 Eastern. You can stream it as always on Paramount Plus. Welcome back to CBS Sports HQ. Let’s continue our conversation on the 3M Open teeing off this weekend as you take a look at the odds to win the event. Look at that. It’s our guy Chris Gddup up top 18 to1 looking to win another event. Of course, he just won the Genesis Scottish Open a couple weeks ago. Finished third at the Open Championship last week. But don’t count out guys like Sam Burns, Windam Clark also on this list at 25 to1 as we continue to push towards the FedEx Cup FedEx Cup playoffs later this year. Let’s get you some winning wagers when it comes to golf. And to do so, we’ve got Sports Lines betting analyst Sia Nad joining us here. SIA, start with a layup here. Give us your pick to win when it comes to the 3M Open this weekend. So, Haley, we just saw that odds board. Right below a couple of those 35 to1 guys that you showed is Michael Thorbjornson. That that’s where I’m headed. And I’m really just playing the upside of Michael Thorbjornson. A guy who can absolutely ball strike it. When you look at his ball striking metrics, especially lately, when you look at his weighted total metrics, things of that nature, and how he can pop with the putter, I just really like Thor Bjönson. I mean, again, at alt events, he’s been very good, but at regular PGA Tour stops, he’s been very good as well. There was a couple names on that board, like just sneak peek to the early wedge later on tonight like that. I’m also going to like in the outright market, which we may get to in a second, but the long story short here is I like the number on Thor Bjornson. I think this is got a guy that’s going to be a household name in 2026. Let’s be a little early in 2025. You can get him right now at plus 3500 to win. Let’s talk about DFS. Seia, we’ll start with the good. Give us your DFS goodbyes when it comes to the 3M Open. Well, we’re going to go to Jake Knap and uh we’re also going to go to Tristan Lawrence. Again, not a household name in the case of the second name, but Jake Knap should be a guy that’s on people’s radar. Just like Thor Bjornson, Knap is a guy that can absolutely make birdies. can get hot with the ball striking and of course can fill it up with the putter. I mean, this guy sometimes, you know, we’ve seen it recently. He’s gained 10 strokes with the putter and we know how good he is off the tea. The approach play has been there as well. So, he will get some popularity, but I don’t think he’s going to be so popular that you you don’t you can’t play him. A guy that’s not going to be very popular is Tristan Lawrence, particularly because the last three tournaments that would be over at the Scottish Open, the Open Championship, and the John Deere Classic. He just hasn’t been very good. But prior to that, we started to see things from Tristan Lawrence where again, we’re trying to appreciate his upside off the tea and approach can really spike. The short game, of course, which is around the green and the putting play can really spike for him as well. And we’ve seen that recently at the Rocket Classic and at the US Open where he had two top 15 finishes in those. So, I think Tristan Lawrence is a really sneaky play uh that you don’t have to make, but I think it can pay dividends. So, those are two good binds. Tristan Lawrence and Jake Nap. Trust in the process a little bit is what it sounds like when it comes to Lawrence there. All right, let’s get to some DFS bad buys. Sea, what should we not be doing this weekend? Well, I wonder Haley about Chris Goddup because you know he’s coming off such momentum. We’re playing we’re playing this DFS game and we’re trying to consider okay like where is everybody going and and who should I fade and things of that nature. There’s so much game theory involved and because pricing is relatively soft, I I feel like Chris Garup is a guy that people are just going to play because a he’s fun to watch and b he’s been booming the last few weeks, really the last couple weeks in particular. I think, you know, pivoting to a guy like Sam Burns who’s also going to get some ownership or maybe just pivoting out of that Chris Garup, Sam Burns, Mad McNeely range might be the play here. So, as far as a bad buy, again, this is DFS we’re talking about and we’re trying to sometimes fade the popular pick. I could see water coming to level here and Chris Goddarup finally, you know, having a bad tournament, which again at this time people are like, “No, he’s the new kid on the block. It’s not going to happen.” I I’m willing to fade Chris Goddar up in DFS. All right, fading Chris GD up there even with the shortest odds. All right, Sia, give us your best bet then when it comes to the 3M Open. Well, Haley, on a Tuesday afternoon, I always come with my top nationality play or top in region as it’s stated on FanDuel. Last week I hit Christian Bazaden out at top South African at plus 360. We’re going with a similar number here. We’re going with again not a household name. We’re going with David Skins as top UK and Irish player. There’s only four in this field. This is plus 320 over at FanDuel. The other guys in this field are Sheamus Power not playing well at all. Danny Willlet not playing well at all. Matt Wallace, well he is playing well. He’s plus 125 in this market, plus 120ish over at at FanDuel. And I do worry about him a little bit because his ball striking’s been a little bit better than David Skins. But what I like about David Skins is that his ball striking has been good. His putter can get absolutely hot. And what I love the most is that this number I don’t think should be that big of a gap between David Skins at plus 330, plus 320 and Matt Wallace at around plus 120 plus 125. I think these guys are comparable on this score specifically. And so I do think we’re getting some value with David Skins as top UK and Irish player. Who’s you where are you getting regional bets from? Only from our C and Dean only on Sports. Sea, we appreciate the time and the creativity. I hope you win this weekend. Uh, keeping a close eye on those UK Ireland golfers. I like that one there. More from SAD and the Sports Line crew on the Early Wedge podcast. Get you set for all the action tinge off this weekend on CBS. You can scan that QR code to get locked in right now.
1 Comment
I got Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, and Maverick McNeal and dark horse is Matt Schmid