0:00 – 2:08 | Sleepy J’s Picks and Analysis
Quote:
“Let’s go, let’s get into our winners. I’m going to give you two here, Uncle Dave. I’m going with Jake Knapp, 35-1.”
Analysis:
Sleepy J opens with confidence, selecting Jake Knapp at 35-1 odds as his first pick. His reasoning focuses on Knapp’s recent consistent performance—finishing 4th, 21st, and 22nd in his last three tournaments. Importantly, Knapp took the previous week off, which Sleepy J views as a strategic advantage over competitors who played in majors or the Scottish Open, potentially dealing with jet lag.
He also highlights Knapp’s 55th position in the FedEx Cup standings, noting that a strong finish could push him into contention for Eastlake, particularly with a win. Sleepy J stresses Knapp’s standing as one of the “stronger guys in this particular field,” reinforcing his confidence in the pick.
Quote:
“Sam Burns, 18 to 1. Don’t be alarmed at Sam Burns the last two tournaments. Anybody that has handicapped Sam Burns knows that he is just simply not good on Lynx courses.”
Analysis:
Sleepy J’s second pick is Sam Burns at 18-1 odds. He dismisses Burns’ poor recent results, attributing them to struggles on Lynx courses—a known weakness for the player. This week’s event at TPC Twin Cities represents a more favorable setting, and Burns has performed well here in his last three visits (7th, 32nd, and 12th).
Currently 22nd in the FedEx standings, Burns has an opportunity to solidify his position for Eastlake with a strong showing. Sleepy J emphasizes Burns’ putting as a key advantage at this course, declaring him “tough to beat.” Although he notes the 18-1 line feels low, he still endorses it as justified based on Burns’ potential.
2:09 – 4:14 | Dave Essler’s Picks and Analysis
Quote:
“I’m going to give you two and I’m going to give you one that you’re probably going to throw up in your mouth, you’re sleepy. But I took Max Grace, I’m at a 28 to 1.”
Analysis:
Dave Essler starts by acknowledging Sleepy J’s Burns pick before revealing his own: Max Grace at 28-1 odds. He draws attention to Grace’s course familiarity, noting that the golfer often performs well at venues where he has prior success. Grace was runner-up at this course last year, bolstering the pick.
Despite missing two cuts in the UK (his first professional Lynx golf events), Grace had made 18 of 20 cuts prior to that and all four cuts in majors leading up to the previous week. Essler also notes Grace’s length off the tee as a strength, though his inaccuracy was a liability in previous outings. Returning to a familiar U.S. course, Essler expects a rebound.
Quote:
“My other one, I took another longer shot is Patrick Fishburne at 65 to 1. He was sixth here last year.”
Analysis:
Essler’s second pick is Patrick Fishburne at 65-1 odds. He describes Fishburne as “unheralded and way undervalued,” citing his 6th-place finish at this course last year. Fishburne opened the season strong with three top-12 finishes and has three consecutive top-20 finishes coming into the event.
Key stats support the pick: Fishburne ranks 20th in shots gained off the tee, combining length with reasonable accuracy. Essler acknowledges Fishburne’s marginal short game, but notes that large greens at this course lessen the importance of around-the-green play. This makes Fishburne a viable dark horse pick.
4:14 – 4:24 | Closing Remarks
Quote:
“Well, I think we’re going to end up cashing a winner ticket there this week there, Uncle Dave.”
Analysis:
Sleepy J closes with optimism, confident that their combined selections will produce a winning ticket. Both speakers express satisfaction with their restrained approach, focusing on a small, carefully selected pool of golfers rather than overextending with multiple picks.
Key Player Statistics & Insights
Jake Knapp: Recent finishes of 4th, 21st, 22nd; 55th in FedEx Cup; did not play last week (rest advantage).
Sam Burns: Past results at TPC Twin Cities: 7th, 32nd, 12th; 22nd in FedEx Cup; strong putting identified as a decisive advantage.
Max Grace: 2nd place at this course last year; 18 of 20 cuts made prior to UK events; 49 career events played.
Patrick Fishburne: 6th at this course last year; three top-12 finishes this season; top-20 in last three events; 20th in shots gained off the tee.
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Let’s go ahead. Let’s get into our winners. I’m going to give you two here, Uncle Dave. I’m going with Jake Knap, 35 to1. I think he’s just playing too well right now not to consider him. Three tournaments in a row, he’s been solid. Fourth, 21st, 22nd. Now, he took last week off and like I was talking about with one of the other golfers before, he’ll probably be one of the fresher guys in the field this week, you know, not playing in the major and, you know, all these other guys played in the major, played in the Scottish. So there’s got to be some jet lag for a lot of these guys. Jake Nap won’t have that there this week. He currently sits 55th in the FedEx Cup. So a good finish here, you know, could end up putting him maybe in, you know, in the conversation for East Lake, especially if he like wins this one. He could find himself, you know, in in the final week there. So I I just feel like Jake Knap is one of the stronger guys here in this particular field. So I’m going to go ahead. I’m going to play him at 35 to1. And then this one, I I I absolutely love this one. Sam Burns 18 to1. Don’t be alarmed at Sam Burns the last two tournaments. Anybody that has handicapped Sam Burns knows that he is just simply not good on Lyn’s courses. This is going to be a massive breath of fresh air for Burns. He’s been good here at TPC Twin Cities his last three visits, 7th, 32nd, and 12th. Burns currently right now sits 22nd in the FedEx. So, a strong finish here certainly locks him in, you know, to the final week there at East Lake. And how Burns has been playing and how he’s been putting, he’s going to be tough to beat here at this particular course. I think the putters will have a big advantage there at this course this week. And nobody has been, you know, as good as Sam Burns. So, Burns is going to feel good, you know, getting away from those links courses and showing up here at TPC Twin Cities. I really like Sam Burns a lot. 18 to1 it looks low but it feels right at 18 to1. Like you wish you were getting a better a better number, but 18 to1 I still like that. So it’s Jake Knap, Sam Burns for me, Uncle Dave. Those are my winners. What do you got? Yeah, I’m kind of glad you threw Burns on there because I didn’t and I seriously thought about it. I’m going to give you two and I’m going to give you one that you’re probably going to throw up in your mouth here, Sleepy. But I took Max Grace him in at 28 to1. Um, you know, here’s a guy if you look at his brief career, he’s done well uh this year on courses he did well on last year almost to you know it’s it’s crazy that if you lay them side by side how how familiarity has helped him and he was second here last year. Um he’s still looking for win number one, but by the same token, the dudes only played in 49 events. And you know, he missed both cuts in the UK, but he made 18 of 20 before that. And those are his first professional links golf events. He he’d made all four cuts in majors preceding last week. So, you know, I can’t throw him under the proverbial bus yet. Um, had I looked into him deeper last week, I should have known uh his length off the tea will help, but his uh inaccuracy won’t, which was clearly last week’s issue. And I I think back in the US, he ought to get back on track. So, you know, one of us will be happy uh Sunday with Max Grayman’s play and the other won’t. And my other one, I took another longer shot, is Patrick Fishburn at 65 to1. Um he was sixth here last year. It’s kind of unheralded and way undervalued. You know, he started this season with three top 12s, been in the top 20 in his last three events. I love his length. He’s 20th and shots gained off the tea, meaning he’s reasonably accurate. He’s got a marginal short game, but again, these greens are huge and shots gained around the green is a little bit less important. Uh they’re not unimportant, but I think on this course you can get away with not being Jordan Spaith around the greens. So, I took Grace in. I took Patrick Fishburn. Uh, and I’ll leave it alone. I looked at a few other guys, but you know, let’s let’s just not go crazy and and tick off 10 of them and say we won one. Those are the two I I landed on. Well, I think we’re going to end up cashing a winner ticket there this week there, Uncle Dave. So, we don’t have to go ahead and just unload all these picks. But we know that uh that we’re going to be pretty well this
