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The TOUR heads to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota! Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!
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SHOW INDEX:
0:00 Intro
0:17 Course Preview
4:08 10K Range
10:08 9K Range
18:18 8K Range
20:26 7K Range
24:52 6K Range
26:54 Custom Model
28:42 Outro

#3Mopen #tpctwincities #PGATOUR #DFS #Golf​ #FantasyGolf #PGA​ #OneAndDone ​#RickRunGood​​ #draftkings

What’s up guys? Rick here with your preview for this week’s 3M Open coming off of the final major championship of the year. There is no sleep for the weary. We roll on here because professional golf rolls on. So, let’s get into this. Um 3M open one of the newer events on the PGA Tour schedule. It was introduced along with the Rocket Classic. What was that? Six or seven years ago. So, we are starting to compile some really good data on TPC Twin Cities, which is where they are going to play this. And you’ll see the par fives here are really your scoring opportunities. Um, the sixth hole, the 12th hole, have played historically a halfstroke under par. The finishing hole, or at least the finishing stretch in general, uh, very getable. that par five 18th. That’s where we saw Matt Wolf make an eagle to to beat Bryson in for his first PGA Tour victory if you remember that. And uh that is where you’re going to see a lot of birdies being made because 15, 16, 17, and 18 are all for the most part playing underpar and to a significant bit. Um there are some es and flows to this golf course. You kind of see here four through eight very getable then a little bit more difficult around the turn 9 10 and 11 before you get to that uh second to last par five on number 12 and then of course the closing stretch that we talked about. So very fun little golf course where you get a ton of runs uh a ton of birdie streaks. When you look at the regression model, this is my website. Everything everything is from my website, rickrimegood.com. You see that this is a pretty average PGA Tour course. Uh it does reward driving accuracy a little bit more, a little bit higher than average. When it comes to other PGA Tour courses, it does reward around the green play a little bit more than other PGA Tour courses. But what it really says to me is uh the best players find a way here, right? strokes gain total is is very sticky, very highly ranked. And then when you look at the secondary stats, you see a lot of different things. You see close approaches, 50 to 75 yards. This in this case, it’s from the rough. Not a great stat by itself. Putting from 8 feet, that’s the 50/50 mark. So now you’re talking about our guys, you know, I’ll keep going here. Longest hole outs, that’s a nothing stat. Putting from four to eight feet, same thing. Consecutive greens in regulation, putting from nine feet. What does this say to me? This says scoring. So the 8 foot number, the four to eight feet, the nine feet putting is those are basically the 50/50 spots on the PGA tour, right? 7T 10 in that’s 50/50. So if everyone is getting a lot of scoring opportunities, which it kind of seems they are, uh, who is going to take advantage of those scoring opportunities? Okay, that starts to tell a little bit of a story for me. These approaches. So, when you get really scorable parfs and you see like approaches from inside of 50 yards or 50 to 75 yards or something like that, that usually tells me it’s more of a par five stat. That’s usually after your second shot on a par five or something of that nature where then now you’re trying to get up and down for birdie. That’s the way that I read that. But with consecutive greens and regulation, with an approach stat, with a bunch of whole out stats and birdie stats and total putt stats, um, we’re looking for birdie makers. We’re looking for great approach players. We’re looking for great putters. If you take those numbers and overlay them, let’s do the last 24 rounds for every single golfer in this field. Let’s see who gets the best adjusted fit. Andrew Putnham does. He’s a he’s a positive approach player. He’s a great putter. Matt Mccardi does very well in both of those categories. Vince Whley, Tristan Lawrence, Paul Peterson rounding out the top five. Sam Burns is the first big boy who gets a a pretty good adjusted fit. He’s seventh or eighth on this list. So, interesting stuff here. I mean, we’re going to we’re going to we’re going to ride our horses. Uh I think that’s the way to do this, but we’re also going to look at our um approach and and putting guys are big-time scorers. Here’s the cheat sheet on rickr rungood.com. There are three golfers over $10,000 this week. I’m pretty warm on all of them. Sam Burns, Maverick McNeely, and Chris Goddup. I think what we’re going to find is that there is a precipitous, did I use that word correctly, drop off when you start getting down pretty pretty close to the top of this board um between those three and kind of some others. So, I think there’s going to be some pretty big cliffs that we go off of here. Let’s start with Sam Burns. He’s the most expensive. If you have watched golf at any point in the last five years or if you watched this show at any point in the last five years, Sam Burns, you would know that Sam Burns has uh the skill set that is usually great approach play and great putting. You see that in the numbers here. He lost strokes putting at Royal Port Rush, but that ended a streak of positive putting dating back to Phoenix was the last time that he lost prior to that. And after this slump in the middle of the year on approach play from Genesis to the PGA Championship, he has been much better on approach, piling up usually multiple strokes there every single time he tees it up. I bet you if I go down and look at Yeah, it’s not perfect, but you can see his last 100 rounds, it’s almost completely left to right, which is putting and approach. Um, so pretty cool to to see that as well. And then if you look at his 3M history stuff, it’s three starts, not every year, but he played here in 2019 and 2020, and then he played here last year, 7th, 32nd, and 12th. He’s never lost strokes from Ta Green. He has taken advantage of the ball striking metrics. This seems like a pretty good spot to run out Sam Burns here. Pretty good course fit, pretty good course history. Um, I I do I do like this quite a bit. The only problem is that he’s 10,500, but I think we’re going to be able to make plenty of lineups around that. Mar McNeely and Chris Goddarup are two also interesting stories. McNeely has been probably much better than you think. Also a great putter. Not really as known as much for his approach play, but he’s been really really strong off the tea in 2025. He’s healthy again. This is great. This is a well-rounded player who finished 17th at the Travelers, 22nd at the Scottish, 23rd at the Open. That’s a That’s a signature event, a national championship, and a major championship. It’s really, really strong stuff. So, I like the way that McNeely is trending. He’s got a lot of Not that these guys all don’t have things to play for. They all do, but McNeely is very much in the Ryder Cup conversation. Um, I I think he’d be very parable. You know, there are some guys that have definitely underperformed for the United States team. It’s It’s probably a a dog that McNeely makes that team, but I think he thinks he’s playing for it. Great history around the 3M Open. Just a a lot of stuff in the positive direction for for McNeely here. So, so we’re going to see, especially on Wednesday when we get to the live chat, what the what the projected ownership on these three golfers is, projected ownership are is. Um, and we can make some decisions from there, but pretty warm on all three. And then Chris Goddarup. Nobody has changed their life and their career trajectory more than Chris Goddarup in the eight in the last eight rounds. He wins the Scottish Open. Boom. Now you’re in everything. You are, you know, you’re you’re you’re almost certainly going to be in the tour championship. You play the Open, which you weren’t even qualified for until you won the Scottish, and you finished third there. Massive payday, like 2.8 million bucks over the last eight days. um just now he’s in a different spot. And this is not those are not outliers. I mean, he’s been playing great golf since Punaana. Every time the field has gotten better, he’s gotten better. He has a really good skill set. He’s a he’s a prolific scorer or at least he has the ability just un immense immense firepower. We’re going to learn a lot about Chris Goddarup right now. Was that a two-week heater on lynx style golf? And now now what? Now that he’s out of that bubble, does this continue? He is another guy, you know, outside outside chance for the RDER Cup. But if he stays playing this well over the course of the next five weeks, his life is going to change and his career is going to change because he can take this this stuff, play well into the playoffs, make a deep run. The Tour Championship, everybody starts at even. Everybody started at even at the open. Everybody started even at at the Renaissance Club. Could Chris God finish inside the top five of the Tour Championship and just absolutely change his life if he does all of that? Is he on the RDER Cup team after what would be like a a really strong 10 weeks? So, I think we’re going to learn a lot about Chris Godup. What did Kobe say? Job’s not done. Why Why aren’t you happy? Why aren’t you smiling? Job’s not done. Job’s not done for Chris Goddarup. He’s got a like a lot a lot a lot to play for. So, those are the big three and I’m going to have pretty good exposure to the big three. We’ll we’ll see what the you know the DFS ownership as the week rolls on. And there’s no better place to sweat the action than DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for fantasy golf fans. Right now, DraftKings is giving new customers a chance to play free for their share of millions in prizes with their first deposit on the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app. It’s simple to play. Build your dream lineup while staying under the salary cap. Then sit back and watch as your players rack up points. Every birdie, every bogey, every clutch putt. Feel the intensity of every shot. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Rick DFS to play free for your share of millions with your first deposit. That’s Rick DFS for new DraftKings customers. Just download the Daily Fantasy app today. The crown is yours. We go to the 9K range and I’m already feeling a bit queasy. Uh, do I trust Windom Clark? Do I trust Ricky Fowler or Max Grazerman or Seu Kim or Tony Fen? The answers are mostly no. Um, would I rather go down to an 8K range and start piling up on Jake Knap and Michael Thorbjornson and Ameliano Greo and Asha Patia? Yeah, probably. But let’s talk about what’s going on in this in this range here. So, Maverick McNeely or excuse me, Windham Clark had a very similar run that Bryson Dshambo did at the open, which is a really really bad start and a uh three unbelievable finishes. Now, I I want to show you something here, and this is getting very deep into the weeds. This is the new radar tool on rickr rungood.com. It’s got shot shapes and um spin rates and all this stuff. I it it does not surprise me that um Bryson and Windham had three really good rounds when the condition when the wind was down. So So Windham plays a massively curvy spinny game. Okay. 91 ft of curve on average. That is uh the biggest on the PGA Tour as far as I’m concerned. Let’s see here. Yeah, biggest on the PGA Tour. I I’ll even get rid of that was actually last week’s field. I’ll have to load this week’s field in here. But 91 feet of of curve almost exclusively left to right. Luke Clinton the only guy who who who who does it bigger when you start getting wind that hits that um things go sideways. Bryson has talked a lot about spin on his golf ball and how it’s being impacted because of his launch angles and he plays better when there’s no wind. I’m not saying I don’t want to poo poo what Windom Clark did at the Open because he also played very well at the Scottish Open and we’ve started to see just bits of better play out of him. I do think this is being propped up a touch by ideal conditions. Uh a very hot putter that is probably unsustainable. You know, he’s gained over six strokes putting in each of his last two starts, which is eight rounds. He’s lost strokes on approach in like seven of his last nine. I think this is being propped up a little bit by some stuff that’s unsustainable and this could go sideways pretty quickly. So, um maybe the lowest floor, highest ceiling player in the upper part of this uh board here, but it’s pretty unlikely that I get a lot of exposure to Windom. I have not played a lot of Ricky Fowler over the course of the last year or so, and that has not burned me. playing a $9,500 Ricky Fowler doesn’t excite me that much, but it’s obviously relative to the field. He’s playing better than I think um even I thought. Okay, so he misses the cut at Detroit Golf Club, which was a very, let’s call it a public miscut because that’s at a place he’s always had great success at and he misses the cut there. He doesn’t play particularly well. Outside of that, the rest of his run since the PJ Championship has been very good. 16th at the Charles Schwab, seventh at the Memorial, and then his last two, John Deere, T18 in the open, T14. Did you know Ricky Fowler finished T14 at the Open, kind of very low-key. I’m still worried about these second shots. He’s about average, maybe a little bit better than average over his last seven or eight starts on approach. He’s driving it a lot better, which is something that has come in 2025. The putter is starting to heat up a little bit. If we like the correlation of around the green players, that gives him a bump as well. He’s played here twice, but it hasn’t been since 2021 and 2022, and both of those finishes were in the 30s. This it probably speaks to this range of golfers that I’m not very excited about, where Ricky Fowler is probably my third favorite in this range. The the two that make me a little bit more excited are Taylor Pendrith and Max Graser. We’ll start with Graserman. I’m forgiving very quickly here on Grasman. um his run of splendid golf from the Masters to the Rocket has come to a halt. Two miscuts overseas. I look at this a couple of ways. That is a very different style of golf. Um it would not surprise me one single bit for him to get back to TBC Twin Cities and just continue his treachery on the PGA Tour. Finished runner up here last year with a complete gain across the board in every category. Even the missed cuts overseas were both on the number. I mean, he lost a half a stroke or or or fewer over the course of uh two rounds. And the Friday round at the open was awesome. He gained four and a half strokes to the field there. He just gave it all up on on Thursday. So, I can forgive this very quickly and be back in on Max Max Grazerman. Taylor Pendrth is probably a little bit more solid, more suitable. Um, he also missed the cut at the open, so he’s probably been back for a while, but that was his first miscut since the Byron Nelson. He’s a very good around the green player, very good putter. He heats it up in a big way. So, um, Graser, Pendrth 1A, 1B, whatever you want to call that, and then probably Ricky Fowler as the third man in the 9K range, which is shocking to even me. I will point out Sunj Im’s profile and we are still still running on a streak of losing strokes on approach dating back to the Masters. Say that again. Sunjm, historically great ball striker, has not gained strokes on approach since the Masters. and he has not gained one stroke or more since PGA National which was the first week of March. It’s been a very very bad year for Sunj and there is not a lot of signs that is going to turn anytime soon. The 8K range actually has some of the hotter golfers in this field. So last 35 rounds for everybody in this field on the trends tool. So, this is taking their 100 round baseline, then looking at what they’ve done over the last 35 and giving them like a new trend number. Uh, Chris Goddarup obviously trending up significantly. Uh, Sam Burns is on there as well. Well, look at the first two 8K guys that pop up. Michael Thorj Bjornson’s fifth on this list in the field and Jake Knap is sixth. So, Jake Knap has now earned uh I’ll round this, but four straight top 25 finishes. uh a lot of really sound play especially from Ter Green except for the Scottish Open. Gained 10 strokes putting at the Scottish Open which is which is nuts. He finished T22nd. That is unsustainable. But again like if you have the worst X week of your life pitch uh driving approach putting whatever and you do it on a golf course that is unique or different than what you see all the time, it’s hard to care. So, so that’s the first time Jake Knap’s ever played in Europe, I’m pretty sure he said, right? It’s like it’s never I’ve never been to Scotland. I’ve never been to Europe. Like, I’m playing golf. Like, this is crazy. Um, the fact that he lost six strokes on approach and another three around the greens and was still able to finish 22nd is kind of nuts. So, I’ll give him I’ll give him a nice a nice uh hat tip for that one. But outside of that, the the three previous have been awesome. He withdrew from this event last year. I do not remember that at all. Looks like he withdrew after the completion of the third round. He was pretty good through two rounds. He was miserable. I don’t know if he was injured or something. Miserable in round three and then he withdrew. Uh but it’s been a very very good year for for Jake Knap. He’s immensely talented. He’s a big-time scorer. Michael Thorbjornson now that he’s got JJovic on the bag, now that he’s getting some more um I almost call it playing time, like he’s in the NBA, but yeah, like playing time like he’s, you know, he’s playing more starts. Uh the results are starting to come in. A complete gain at the Rocket where he finished T4. Backs it up with with a T-21 at the John Deere. backs it up with a T14 at the Isco. I like the Tet to Green numbers. So that is 12 plus six is 17 strokes gained from Tet to Green over his last 12 rounds. Th this is very very strong stuff. The the bizarre WD in the first round of the Charles Schwab well behind him. If we remove that, it’s every cut dating back to the Texas Open. So this is really sound play and I feel like he’s contended. No, that was the Rocket that I think I’m thinking of. Um he missed the cut here last year. gained three and a half strokes on approach. But yeah, this is th those are pretty firmly the two best options in the 8k range for me. I would be uh interested in Luke Clinton. I would be interested in Oshay Batia. I want to look at Max Homo’s profile just to see what’s going on. He played the Barracuda. Yeah. Okay. So, played the Barracuda, finished 45th. We don’t get the there was not shot length so we don’t get the strokes game breakdown here. Uh the John Deere he finished T5 and hit it a lot better. Boy, boy oh boy, is this enough. The ball striking numbers of the John Deere were really good. The T45 of the Barracuda is is not good, but he had two rounds where he gained at least three and a half strokes to the field. Wow. Okay. Um, I want to I want to be interested in this. I mean, the the class of Max Hom is is so good. He’s 8,100 $8,300. Maybe I’ll just get exposure to in like a top five market where if he plays well and he’s in the mix, that’s fine. I don’t need him to win. I do think his floor is incredibly low, but we’re God, we’re close. We’re really close. He’s played here twice. Third in 2020, long time ago, and 79th in 2019. Man, we’ll see how the week goes for Maxoma, but I would love to be early on Max. The 7K range. And oh yeah, now we can get our hands dirty in the 7K range. I would not be surprised if the optimal lineup was just six guys from the 7K range, quite honestly. Um, Rico Hoey, love this man. He’s $7,800. He finished T8 at the Barracuda last week and I’m pretty sure he led after three rounds and had a very very miserable Sunday, but not super concerned about that. 34th at the Isco, 11th at the John Deere. This is the type of field that Rico Hoey kind of dominates in. Seventh at Myrtle Beach earlier this year, another weak field that he’s going to get. Vince why the whale man, I don’t know what’s his what’s his nickname, hasn’t missed a cut since the Texas Open. He is also kind of a weak field specialist. seventh in Punaana, fourth at the Isco, 23rd at the Barracuda. I even give him the 11th at Charles Schwab. That’s pretty good. The 15th at Byron Nelson, even better. Uh only one finish outside the top 40 and that was the T-52 in Canada. So yeah, I mean I should probably be giving him better more credit than um what he’s what he’s uh actually been doing. He’s missed the cut twice here each of his last two times, but they were 2020 and 2021. Doug Gim, another top 20 at the Barracuda last week. So, now we’ve got Doug Gim, who has gained 18 or 19 strokes uh to the field over his last 12 rounds. Is he gonna get exposed at the Canadian Open? Yeah, probably. Missed the cut there. Is he gonna get exposed at Oakmont? Yeah, probably missed the cut there. Is he going to get exposed at the Rocket or the John Deere or the 3M? Like, nah, probably not going to get exposed there. He’s played here five times. That might be the most of anybody, quite honestly. Um, and has never or excuse me, he’s made four cuts, all 27th or better. He missed the cut here in 2021. He has dominated from T to Green at the 3M Open. He has often puted quite well or at least has a a high upside with the putter at at TPC Twin Cities. Firepower abound in Mattie Schmid. You don’t always see it because he is about as volatile as it gets, but drives it beautifully. Um the putter the look at the putter. So he loses nine strokes putting at Port Rush. Not going to beat him up for that. Gained five the week before at the Renaissance Club. Gained six the week prior at the BMW International Open. High risk. High risk. High reward. Actually, the more I look at it, the less I like it. But, uh, high risk, high reward. Chris Bazenho played the freaking Open Championship last week. How is he $7,200? This man, he’s like a top I have no idea what his world rank is. I’m going to guess and I’m going to look it up. I guess it is 40th. It’s 65th. So maybe I was giving him a little bit too much credit, but this is a golfer who is historically a phenomenal putter, and we are seeing that again here in 2025. He loses more frequently than he normally does, but his gains are still very big. Plus seven at the Travelers, plus five at the US Open, plus two and a half at the Scottish Open. You got me? Now look at the combination of the approach play. He’s gained strokes on approach in four out of his last five in seven of his last nine, often two to five over the course of four rounds. I think he is much better than his peers in this price range. So he is priced in a place where like Eric Van Royan last week played the barracuda. It’s not nothing wrong with that. Played well actually. But why why why is Christian so cheap? I like that a lot. And then Matt Mccardi, another man that I cannot quit. I’ve got a Xander problem and I’ve got a Matt McCarti problem. He’s missed two of his last three cuts. They were not bad. The John Deere missed the cut on the number. Gained strokes to the field that week. He missed the cut at the open. I don’t really care about that. 22nd at the Scottish, 19th at the Rocket. He is an approach and putting guy. Um he’s usually actually a pretty good like tea green player. He does not need to be long off the tea here, which is good because he’s not. We I just I just can’t believe he’s he’s had such a bad year. It’s getting better, but we need we need more out of uh we need we need this we need this T4 out of out of Matt McCarti. If you haven’t been paying attention, William Mau won the Isco. Was that two weeks ago? He is $7,000 even. Antoine Rosner, my god, he just played the open as well. He’s $6,900. See what he’s been up to. Yeah. Made the cut at the open. He has now made every cut dating back to the American Express. Positive T Green player, positive approach player, positive putter. Yeah. Well, like just much too cheap. He’s gonna He’s probably gonna contend this week. He He He’s Now, imagine him licking his chops, walking into this field like, “I’m just going to slap you dorks around.” That’s what he’s thinking right now. He’s $6,900. So, I’ve already kicked off the the $6,000 range. Ricky Castillo’s gone 34th at the Isco, 23rd at the Barracuda, two weak fields. He’s going to get another weak field. Tristan Lawrence has played a much more difficult schedule and has had worse results, but 44th at the John Deere, missed cut at the Scottish, made the cut, 45th at the Open. Garrick Higgo, let’s keep an eye on. He withdrew during the second round of the Barracuda. Probably wasn’t going to play him anyway, but need to need to keep an eye on that. Chris Ventura um has played well, but not for four rounds at a time. David Sins has back-to-back top eight finishes and has three top 10s in his last five starts. The last two are those two weak field events and he finished 24th here last year. I want to see what the model has to say. Joel Damon’s in this field and presumably with a new caddy. I don’t know who it’s going to be, but he split with Gino. Oh my god. Sorry, Gino. Um, so they’ve split. Joel Damon played the Barracuda. He finished T17. Good sign there. You know, Joel is over the last 200 rounds probably one of the better T Green players in this field. That’s a long time. I’m banking on a lot of other stuff. Maybe this is the spark that he needs. Would not mind taking a risk on Joel Damon considering the fact that like Bransker is here. No thank you. Let’s run a model. See what the model has to say. So custom model rickr rungood.com. We are going to do Uh, we’re going to do approach play. We’re going to do putting for sure. So, let’s do this. Let’s do 36 rounds. We are going to do strokes gain approach last 24 for 20. Strokes game putting last 24 for 20. And then what I will also do is add a little more on greens in regulation. I will also add a little more on putts inside 10 ft. Then I will do course history for TPC Twin Cities if I can find it. There it is for 15 which leaves me 25 left. I think I want scoring scoring. Scoring scoring let’s do easy courses for 10 and let’s do birdie or better gained for 15 my number one golfer is Sam Burns h interesting Ameliano Guros two Andrew Putnham three Cam Champ four Patrick Fishburn season five Nick Hardy Alex Norin Max Graaserman Osha Batia Taylor Pendr I’m just going to click some favorites here so that I don’t forget to either look at these guys later or see what’s going on. But Zadeo was 14 for me. Chris got her up was 15 for me. Just clicking some names so I don’t forget about them when I start making lineups later. Okay. Um, great. That’ll do it. Wednesday live chat 3 pm Eastern time. Rick Run Good YouTube channel. We’ll look at the ownership. We’ll make a decision about those guys at the top of the board and we will uh we will do much much more. All right. Later. [Music]

18 Comments

  1. Pga Tour Fantasy Golf did not allow player switches the final two rounds for the Open,12 hours before the next rounds first tee time.
    What is the point anymore when they just don't care.
    Scottie and McIlroy stuck on the bench for the weekend because no edits were allowed because Fantasy had the next round as started 12 hours before actual tee times started.
    WTF!
    Sad the Pga tour just doesn't give a trillionth of a fq about their Fantasy Golf.

  2. What happened to Max Homa between his successful visit to South Africa and a few weeks later when he began his slump?

  3. Is there any correlation between guys playing the open and not playing well vs people who didnt and playing well here?

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