The 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush

On this episode of The Spread Zone, Scott Rizzuto, Anthony Stalter, and Tim McKernan dive into the 2025 Open Championship, analyzing the unpredictable weather at Royal Portrush and how it could shape betting strategies. The crew debates the pressure on Rory McIlroy, doubts around Scheffler’s Open track record, and whether Rahm can rise to the moment. They also explore value picks, sleeper contenders, and the mindset needed to win on links courses. From top names to deep longshots, the hosts offer sharp insights and bold predictions for one of golf’s most dramatic majors.

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We provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm gambling regulations in your state of residence. To participate in sports gaming, you must be 21 years of age or older and be physically present in a state where sports betting is legal. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.ncpgambling.org for more information and further assistance. (dramatic music) Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Spread Zone. My name is Riz, as always, joined by my two esteemed colleagues. Ooh, esteemed. Esteemed, wow, Anthony Stalter and Tim McKernan. Gentlemen, let me intro this the right way. And by the way, it’s the Spread Zone, presented by our friends at FanDuel. It is the fourth and final major of the golf season. We’re heading across the pond for the 153rd Open Championship. This week, the world’s best descend on Royal Portrush Golf Club in Northern Ireland. This is a, it’s a historic course, isn’t it? Historic at par 71, playing over 7,200 yards. We just saw it host the Open in 2019 when Irishman Shane Lowry won the Claret Jug in a fairytale victory, I’d call it, Tim, wouldn’t you? Going home and winning in his home country, you better believe it. So 2019, the defending champ golfer of the year is Xander Schoffely, who won last year at Royal Trune. And as with any Open Championship, the weather’s gonna be a factor. So what are we looking at over in Ireland for the next couple of days, Tim? I mean, the weather is what it’s all about when you’re wagering on the Open, both from who you think will win, top 10, making cuts. If you’re building out daily fantasy rosters, you can select a variety of players who are going off at certain tee times and use that to your advantage, because other tee times, Riz, they can get buried by the wind or the rain. But the wind will have a bigger impact. The issue right now is they’ve had great weather. They’ve had almost American summer caliber weather going into this week, but now the weather is supposed to pick up just in time for the Open, and nothing is specified as a clear at the moment, in the forecast. At the moment, but it’s very unpredictable. Clear ways, but it can change so quickly. As we sit here, there’s talk of possible thunderstorms, which could delay play. So if you’re trying to handicap, Anthony, the tee times, if tee times get pushed back because of a delay, you then lose out that way. So there is a real strategy to the Open being one of the most predictable because you can handicap with weather. But on this particular one, as we sit here less than 12 hours away from the balls in the air in Northern Ireland, it is not clear how that weather will impact the Open in 2025. So you do take this into account before making more checks. Huge, huge. But the issue from a wagering standpoint is, at the moment, it is not clear. And if you do get thunderstorms and it does delay tee times, you can’t take advantage of that information. All right, so let’s dive into the odds, all courtesy of our great sponsors at FanDuel. So let’s start at the top of the board, and it’s a familiar name, world number one, Scottie Scheffler, is the runaway favorite at plus 450 on FanDuel. Of course, the man has been a machine, rolling off 10 top straight, top straight top 10 finishes, including winning the PGA Championship. But here’s the thing, the Open is the one major where he has yet to record a top five finish. So Anthony, I’ll start with you. Is there any world in which you could bet Scottie Scheffler plus 450 to win a major, or is that price just too short? Too short. I’m passing. For exactly what you just said, he’s struggled in the Open. He’s the best player on earth. The last time we were all together, we talked about how almost it feels that we’re underselling Scottie Scheffler’s performances. But despite being the best player on earth right now, you mentioned it, no top five finishes in the Open. The odds are not great. I’m passing. I’m completely passing. You will not be a part of my field. He is a full on fan. He’s a full on fan for me. Now for the man with all the pressure, all the narrative, Roy O’Macaroy, is second on the board, a plus 700. So I think he grew up, I think the status, he grew up 60 miles from this particular golf course. He holds the course record, 61 he shot when he was 16. He’s coming off winning the Masters to complete the career grand slam. He finished tied for second at the Scottish Open. But, and this is a big but, he missed the cut here in 2019 when the pressure was on. So Tim, what do you make of this? Are you buying the homecoming hero narrative and the great form, or do you think the pressure of playing at home gets to him again? It’s a wonderful question because we saw the impact of returning in 2019 on him. He came back as the favorite. People thought this would be his time to have a crowning moment outside of winning at Augusta as he did earlier this year. And what does he do on the very first hole? He gets an eight and misses the cut by one stroke. To his credit in the second round, he played outstanding, but he still missed the cut in the second round. I think when you’re analyzing Roy O’Macaroy, perhaps more than anybody else of the big names out in the PGA Tour in Liv, I look at Roy Macaroy from handicapping his psychology. If he is in it, he is so dangerous right up there with Scheffler. If he’s withdrawn, you see what kind of results you got. Surprisingly to me, I said after he won the Masters, I thought he was gonna go on a run because that burden was off his shoulders. But instead, he came out and said, it was tough to get motivated to go to the range in practice once he had won the green jacket and that career accomplishment of becoming the sixth player to win the career grand slam. But then we saw him get recommitted here recently and have the performance he had. He could have, slash should have won this past weekend at the Scottish Open. He played well at the Travelers a few weeks ago as well. Roy Macaroy has been so good at the Open throughout his career. The Open over the last 10 times, he has played it. He won it in 2014, didn’t play in 15. Then T5 and 16, T4 and 17, T2 and 18. Missed the cut as we made reference at Royal Port Rush, his home course here in 2019. They didn’t play it in 2020, T46 and 21, T3 and 22, T6 and 23. And he missed the cut last year. This style of golf is what he grew up on. He has played this course many a time. Roy Macaroy is somebody I am very focused on this week. So Scheffler’s the favorite. Then you got Macaroy. Then you got at plus 1200, John Rahm. So there’s your top three. Anthony made a sound that to me, Riz told me he’s not high on John Rahm. That’s my read. I might’ve met a bad read. No, no, you made the correct read and now I need to fold. Now I need to show you my cards. I don’t like any of the top three this weekend. Fall on, fade across the board. Yes, sir. You mentioned it. I think this is the most difficult event to handicap. Certainly in golf, if not of all the main betting events throughout the course of the year. Because the weather. The weather’s so unpredictable. I’m seeing some forecasts for a lot of wind. I don’t like it. I think you just start by the odds and you start eliminating by the odds. Rory, you mentioned before, I think you and I, Riz, when we cash out on the Masters. Mm-hmm. Rory, don’t. You both run Rory. Done. Done. Out. I don’t understand how, I mean, I guess from a human element standpoint, like, ah, yeah, it’s tough to get back in there and get back up. I don’t like that at all. I think that that is, you need to have that Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant assassin to you. And I just don’t see that out of Rory. I think he’s tapped. You think? So I’m passing. You pass it on to Rory. And I don’t think John Rahm’s got good odds either at plus 1200. I’m looking at some of the longer shots. So Rahm has had three top seven finishes in his last four opens and finished tied for 11th at this course in 2019. He seems to be playing very steady golf right now. Yeah. So somebody asked you this though. So let’s go to Shoffley, right? Okay. Who’s got plus, what, 2500? He’s plus 2500. You get Rahm at plus 1200 or Shoffley at plus 2500 and he’s been a top 10 machine in majors and obviously won the event last year. Now, I don’t know how you feel about supporting somebody that is, you don’t like to do the back to back thing, right? But I think there’s more betting value in Shoffley than I do with Rahm. If you’re insisting on betting one of the top three, who’s the smartest bet? I see the top of the board right now, who’s the smartest bet? I’ll go to Tim since I just said I would cross off all three of them. Yeah, I go with McElroy. I really like Roy McElroy. It would complete what has been an incredible year. I mean, just winning masters makes it an incredible year. As a golf fan, he started off the year by winning at Pebble Beach and then he also won the players. I mean, if you just win the players and at Pebble Beach, it’s a great year, much less the masters as well. I think this is the fitting end to what has been an incredible year for Rory McElroy to go home and win it at his home country of Northern Ireland. And I would have totally been going the other way had I not seen what he did here over the last couple of weeks. And I think he had a mental reset to his credit. He acknowledged it. He was right there to win the Scottish Open. He was in the final group, Chris Gauterup, who’s kind of an unknown for most people, but he played really well. And McElroy tipped his cap, but he likes where his game is. He’s so familiar with this style of golf, which I think is important as well. Speaking of Scheffler and him not having great success relative to other courses in the United States, I’m easily of the three taking Rory McElroy. And I would say if you’re forcing me to, Riz, give me the best golfer in the world then. Give me Scheffler. Scheffler? All right, we’ll take a quick break. We’ll come back. We’ll look at the next tier of contenders and some interesting prop bets to consider. Spread Zone brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Don’t just watch the game, guys. Be part of it. Download the FanDuel app. All right, welcome back to the Spread Zone. All right, let’s look at the guys chasing the favorites for the Open Championship. So Bryson DeChambeau sitting at plus 2,000. He’s been fantastic in majors over the last year, but his record at the Open is not great. And he missed the cut last time at Port Rush in 2019. Then you have the defending champ, and you mentioned him before during the first segment, Xander Schoffley plus 2,500, and Tommy Fleetwood at plus 2,600, who was the runner-up here at Lowry back in 2019. So Anthony, it’s a fascinating group. The bomber, the steady defender, and the Lynx specialist, if you would. Who do you like most out of those guys? So I mentioned it in our first segment. I like Schoffley. Iron play, I think, is underrated. When you look at the prices of Scheffler and Rom and Rory, and then you compare it to Schoffley at plus 2,500, I think you get an elite player at a pretty solid value. Again, running it back, that’s a difficult call. So maybe you start to look at some of the prop plays with Schoffley to finish in the top 10 or top five. But out of that group, I like Schoffley. Now, Tim, I saw on a computer model, somebody calling for a surprise run from Hatton, Terrell Hatton, who was at plus 3,300 to win on FanDuel. Your thoughts? Terrell Hatton is a very good player. He was in the mix at the US Open last month, Riz. And I could see him being somebody who would be dangerous in this. There is no more emotionally volatile golfer than Terrell Hatton. When he is high, he is high. But when he is low, he is low. And he will show it to you with a wide variety of club tossing slash profanity. So Smart Bet maybe is a top 10? Smart Bet maybe is a top 10? Yeah, I wouldn’t mind that with Terrell Hatton. Yeah, I see he is at, as you mentioned, plus 3,300. But then you can get him a top 10 as well. And he’d be dangerous out there. So who are you looking at maybe for some of these prop bets? Top 10, top 20, who would you throw in? If you were talking about some of the players who wouldn’t necessarily be at that top, what we were talking about was Scheffler and McElroy and Rahm. I go back to the 2019 champion, Shane Lowry. Shane Lowry is playing better now than he was in 2019. I think accuracy off the tee will be the second most important statistic this week next to strokes gained approach. That is clearly the most important statistic. And that’s where Lowry led the field in 2019. But Lowry hits the ball straight. You do not want to wind up in either one of the bunkers at this golf course. These bunkers are ridiculous. They’re basically a one-stroke penalty because you’ve got to hit out sideways. Or there’s out of bounds that is actually on the course. The out of bounds is not the boundary of the golf course, something that is completely foreign to those who play in the United States. You can hit the ball and still be in the realm of the golf hole. But it will be out of bounds per the rules. It’s insanity. You actually have that on the number one hole. So therefore, accuracy off the tee is at a premium. So if I’m looking from that standpoint and I’m looking at two players who wouldn’t be necessarily at the top, but there are certainly guys who could win this thing, the guy who won it in 2019 and Lowry and Tommy Tommy Fleet Fleet, who played really well at the Travelers but folded up shop right at the end, and Keegan Bradley, the American captain for the Ryder Cup, came back and got him in his home area in New England. Tommy Fleetwood would be the one that I would go with along with Lowry. Yeah, I think maybe to make some money, sprinkle in these top 10, top 20s, not to outright win. So Tommy Tommy Fleetwood is what, plus $2,600 to win. But put him in a top 10 prop bet. I think diversifying your portfolio is something that we have often discussed on the spread zone. We have talked about, yeah, take your shot at the winner. But with so many props available at FanDuel, you can really diversify things. You don’t want to go too far. Because like the Super Bowl, I feel like a lot of people have 50 plays. You’re just going to kill yourself in japs. But with this, where you kind of sprinkle– you choose your one winner, then you sprinkle in some top 5s, some top 10s, maybe a couple of guys who miss the cut. If you wind up plus at the end of the weekend, you’re in good shape. Maybe you don’t even have the winner. So there’s one that’s interesting to me. It’s a big guns versus the field. So a plus 118. Shefler, McElroy, Rahm, DeChambeau to win. DeChambeau to me is dead money. Any one of those guys to win at plus 118. Super surprised if DeChambeau wins because of accuracy off the tee reasons. If anything, I would look at him as a miss cut potential. But on the other three, they’re all absolutely live. And you now have those three, and you’re getting plus money on it. That’s an intriguing play. I wish they would give you a different option other than Bryson DeChambeau. As crazy as it is, I would rather have Fleetwood or Lowry. Going to the fan-dual site, there’s a couple different options for you. Got a lot of options. There’s a lot of options over there. So you have no faith in Bryson at all in this. I’d be shocked because I think the premium outside of being an incredible ball striker and strokes gained approach, which he certainly is, is accuracy. And I think that’s what’s going to be his downfall over the next four days in Northern Ireland. So I haven’t looked. I wonder if there’s a– for Bryson to not make the cut. Are you going that style to not make the cut? That’s something I would be intrigued by on Bryson because he would certainly be surprised to see him missing the cut. Scotty Scheffler, for example, is minus 1,300 to make the cut. So obviously, there’s a lot of confidence. McElroy, who missed the cut there six years ago, is minus 950. And speaking of Bryson, it’s minus 340 to make the cut. To make the cut. I’m looking for Bryson to not make the cut. Yes. Miss the cut. I’m not seeing him available at FanDuel. It’s plus 230. Yeah, there it is. Plus 230. I didn’t scroll far enough. Yeah, I’d fire a bullet on that. All right. There you go. See? Any other surprises maybe you guys would put in? Yes. I think that the condition of the golf course, if they don’t get rain, could lend itself to a surprise potential older player making a run. Because they haven’t gotten rain over there in the last few months, which means you’ve got a really firm golf course. And that then mitigates the distance advantage that the younger players have. And if that can happen, one of the most famous moments in golf in the 21st century is Tom Watson approaching the age of 60, being in the mix to win the open on the final hole, the 72nd hole in 2009. And that was in part because of the conditions. Also, he was a master at the British Open. I wonder about a guy like Adam Scott, who has already been playing well as it is. He has one of the most beautiful swings as it is. If he could find himself in the mix, if you can get this golf course in a spot where it doesn’t get super soft, and he can take advantage of that. So if I were looking for a surprise play– it’s not like he’s a random, but Adam Scott would be a name. I would keep my eye on for those reasons. I think you get a good price on him just to make the cut, too. I think I’m seeing him under 150, minus 150. How about that? Which would be– I mean, you’re talking about a savvy veteran with a pretty high floor. I think just to make the cut, we want to look for plus odds, and especially with tournaments like this, but anything under minus 150 I would consider. So that’s not a bad play. I’ll give you one. How about Joaquin Nieman to win the opening round, or to lead the opening round? First round leader, FRL, you got Nieman. What are you getting on that, Anthony? You can get one– I just added here. Then I jump back to the other page. Still holding. One, 50– no, 5,500. 5,500 plus 5,500. For him to be the opening round leader. Often starts fast. He’s aggressive. I played this one. I played somebody in the last majors that we talked about. It wasn’t even close. This is my rebound. Oh, wow. This is a bounce back. It’s Nieman. Joaquin Nieman, FRL, is your play. Yes. Wow. All right. I like that. First round leader. Nice. There will be a guy in the top five who you have never heard of. I can promise you that. That is the way that it works at the open. No idea why it works that way more so than other majors. And then inevitably by Sunday, usually the top names emerge. But there will be somebody in the top five who go, who in the world is this? And he went out there and shot one of the rounds of his life. I do like Shane Lowry, top five. You were talking about him earlier. I think he’s a sneaky player. So we’ll take one final break. I’m going to come back. I’m going to throw out some names to you guys and just see your thoughts. Maybe long shots, some dark horses. I’m going to dig deep for some long shots. I’ll throw some names out for you. Who are the dark horses that are going to make you money this weekend? And we will tell you next. It’s the Spread Zone, brought to you by Fandl. Alright fellas, it’s time to find some real value. So these are the long shots on fan duel That could be worth a look for the open championship. So first up your thoughts Sepstra Kha at plus 5,000 Number feels crazy to me runner-up at the open last year. He’s the number 10 player in the world He’s already had two wins this season That price seems inflated Tim your thoughts the Sepstra Kha is one of the best ball strikers in the world and I was watching coverage Earlier this morning of the open and Bryson D Shambo Was saying to one of the people on the course if you can ball strike you are going to love this golf course Straka can absolutely do that the comp for this golf course On the PGA tour is PGA national In Palm Beach Gardens, Florida Straka has won At PGA national just one here recently at PGA national so that would lend itself to Straka being a nice play The counter to Straka is he has not really performed well in majors But eventually a great player can rise to the occasion and to get 50 to 1 on my money for Straka That certainly would have me Yeah, I didn’t have Straka in my mix here I can I can Throw out a name to your is or I won’t impede you from throwing up the well How about I throw a name to you? Okay, JJ spawn. Nope plus 10,000 the US Open winner is it plus 10,000? For top three finishes this season For a guy with that kind of form 80 to 1 is intriguing Okay, can I raise you a min woo Lee min? That’s your guy for the masters and I if memory serves you got an early flight on Friday It’s a bounce back tied for fifth of the open in 2023 He’s kind of that wilds car right like he’s a bomber man. He can bomb it. This is a wildly talented I think a min woo Lee high ceiling triple digit price I’m gonna I’m gonna raise you to a min woo Lee min woo. How about that? All right, a guy is you didn’t think you didn’t think no, I love that you brought him back Tim How about Nick Taylor at plus 12,000? I? I don’t I don’t see it for Nick don’t say that doesn’t that one would would surprise me on Nick Taylor He could be there in the early going but I’d be surprised if he’s there in the end What about a Ryan Fox Ryan Fox is somebody who has played it really? Well Did not play particularly well at the Scottish this past weekend made the cut but then kind of fell off at the end But man, he’s been playing well. He’s not a household name That’s a guy that I know a number of people who enjoy wagering on golf are Our high on bus week plus plus 10,000. Yeah massive hitter Tied for 16 tied for 22 last two years one of the most unique swings you will see Ryan Fox. That’s a nice play Thank you. Let’s go around the horn one more time Give me one long shot anyone with the odds of plus 5,000 or longer on fan duel anybody else You know what? Let’s go with Ryan Fox one of the best links players on the planet massive hitter strong open pedigree great course fit and Plus 10,000 so it’s a that’s a deep shot a guy who was in the mix at St. Andrews a couple of years ago who fell off had to play in a US Open qualifier Just to play in the US Open last month and to his credit Made it but has not been the guy that many thought he would be as Cameron Young But he’s been playing well as of late and to get plus 9,000 on Cameron Young a guy who’s played well over there in the Style of golf this link style of golf something intrigues me. This is the guy who just won last week I realize most people don’t know of him But he held his own and beat Roy McElroy and beat Wyndham Clark in the final group and that’s Chris got her up And I bring him up number one. He’s a bomber. He can hit it right there with McElroy But number two which stands out about that win in plus 9,000 for got her up coming off the win at the Scottish Open the reason why he’s not a better player is his putter But this style of grass is a totally different style of grass is what he putts on in the United States And he put really well on it at the Scottish Open and so from that standpoint Oftentimes I don’t want to go back to back on a winner like you were talking about going back to back on Zander Got her up as somebody who really intrigues me because he’s got great game But he can’t putt and but he was able to putt Last week and I wonder if he’s comfortable putting on this style of grass which is totally different than what you would see So for example at Augusta National and then the absolute Hail Mary long shot is a guy who Justin Thomas said one of the best players he ever played with and he got in a car accident and To his credit now he is back and has played well this year. He’s at plus 17,000 that would be Bud Cauley Anthony Bud Bud Cauley Cauley is my love you Lee for the 2025 open all right, so I think it’s time for our fan duel official best bets For the 153rd open championship. I’ll go first. I think the pressure gets to Rory I think Chef’s price is too short, so I’m taking John Rahm at plus 1200 to win Anthony what is your single best bet for the week my single best bets of the week would be Let’s go Shane Lowry top five at plus 650 Shane Lowry plot top five pays six and a half to one yes, sir That is that is certainly intriguing right there It’s chalky, but if this is what I think this is what I have to say I really think it’s Roy McElroy’s time I really do I think you’re going to have one hell of a story this weekend I think the the pressure is off because of what happened at Augusta in April I think his mind is right, and I think he has the year That will be talked about for decades winning it not only at Augusta But also the players pebble and in his home nation I like Roy McElroy to win this and getting seven to one on my money Riz all right there You have it. I think some strong picks for what should be an Incredible weekend of golf so make sure you head over to a fan duel for all the latest odds and prompts and live betting action throughout The tournament, and I think that’s it for us here on the spread zone Riz Anthony Tim enjoy the open everybody. Thank you ready for this May all your bets Be in the zone Of course well done all right have a great weekend We provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only please confirm gambling regulations in your state of residence to participate in sports gaming You must be 21 years of age or older and be physically present in a state where sports betting is legal if you are someone You know has a sports betting or gambling problem Please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.ncpgambling.org for more information and further assistance